The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts an above-average hurricane season for a third year in a row.

The Atlantic Basin saw 18 named storms in 2024. Eleven of those were hurricanes, and five of them became major hurricanes. The Atlantic Basin named storms fell within the predicted ranges, but that doesn’t mean this year will be the same. The Atlantic hurricane region outlook indicates a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and 10% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA’s predictions are based on ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon.

The 2025 hurricane season outlook, which officially runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, predicts:

With hurricane season quickly approaching, it’s important to stay vigilant when storms arise from the Atlantic and track closer to land. We’re currently in an ENSO neutral pattern, which means neither La Niña or El Niño will be present. This makes the forecast immensely difficult to predict if this will be a below-normal or very active hurricane season. However, the amount of tropical activity we’ll see will depend on very warm sea surface temperatures, a moisture-rich environment and very weak vertical wind shear. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10. Despite it being months away, we normally see our first named storm mid-June. 

Stick with your News 12 Storm Watch Team meteorologists to keep you safe and weather aware all hurricane season.